The planets could be modulating solar activity
Carsten A. Arnholm, 2008
Ordered (left) and disordered (right) solar orbits
The orbit of the Sun around the centre of mass of the solar system is shown for different time periods from 1192 to 2134, using a heliocentric coordinate system. The ecliptic plane is in the plane of the screen.
The green curves represent the orbit of the solar system centre of mass relative to the centre of the Sun. The position of the solar system centre of mass is computed from the actual masses and positions of the Sun and the planets. The yellow filled circle is the solar disk, the outer red circle is 2 solar radii from the centre of the Sun. The solar system centre of mass can wander up to ~2.2 solar radii away from the centre of the Sun.
The left column shows 50 year segments of the orbit at approximately 178 year intervals. There is a clear cyclic pattern, the orbit almost repeats itself when an overall rotation is taken into account. The orbit shows a rather ordered trefoil-like pattern.
The ordered nature of the left column orbits is further illustrated in a GIF animation of trefoil pattern rotation.
The right column show varying length segments of the orbit at 150-200 year intervals. These orbits are intermediate disordered states between the ordered states shown in column 1. The 4 first disordered states coincide in time with historic solar minima.
- Wolf minimum (1280 to 1340)
- Spörer minimum (1420 to 1570)
- Maunder minimum 1645 to 1715)
- Dalton minimum (1790 to 1820)
- The current period (1985 to 2040) appears to be another disoredered state, looking a bit like the Dalton minimum.
Could it be that solar activity is driven by these mechanisms? If so, then we might expect the coming solar cycles 24 and 25 to be similar to the Dalton minimum (1790 to 1820), with very low activity.
Acknowledgements
The images shown here were generated from my "Solar Orbit Simulator" program. The program calculates solar system orbits based on the theory presented in Astronomical Algorithms by Jean Meeus. The planetary position algorithms in the book are implemented in the AA+ library by P.J. Naughter. Based on the planetary position data as well as solar and planetary masses, the solar system centre of mass is computed. Inspiration for this work was found in Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused
by solar inertial motion? by I. Charvátová.
